16:00 Benfica B - Sporting B Over 2.5+ (1.80)
Benfica B is the most overish team in the league with all of their 9 homes games ending with more than 2.5 goals with a incredible record of 29:17 (5.1 avg). In fact 7 out of 9 ended over 3.5 which speaks volumes about their shaky defence and efficient attack. The constant changes of players due to injuries, international caps, suspensions and going back and forward with the A-team leaves no space for a rigid tactical organization or a good understanding between the players. Moreover if we can say this team has a lot of quality in attacking midfielders (André Gomes, Bernardo Silva), wingers (Helder Costa, Urreta, Cavaleiro) or strikers (Mori, Lolo) one can’t say the same about their defences specially in the centre where Rudinilson, Mitrovic or Vitoria are collecting mistake after mistake. Sancidino Silva is suspended and Helder Costa is injured. Last home game confirmed the over tendency with a 3:1 victory over Porto B in a game full of chances for both sides (Porto B even missed a penalty).
Sporting B is also coming from 4 away over matches. Their over tendency is not so evident as Benfica’s but 6 out of 10 away games went over with a 3.1 average the third highest in the league. They have a much more stable team with less rotation. Traditionally all their midfielders are technically very good with an offensive mind while the wingers are always skilful and pacey. They are known as the Ajax of Portugal being referred as the formation role model every club should follow. In the last 6 away games they scored in every one of them and only managed to keep a clean sheet once.
Benfica scored in every home game (in 6 out of 9 scored at least 3 goals) and conceded in everyone except against Portimonense. The H2H from last year also resulted in 4 goal matches in both stadiums and I have every reason to think it will be no different this time.
FT:3-1
FT:3-1
